Apparently the addition of an ageing All-star QB is enough to make the 7-10 Jets the #7 overall favored team to win the Super Bowl. They are +1600 at BetUS.com, ahead of division rivals and last year playoff teams Miami Dolphins (+2200) and New England Patriots (+6000). Only the Bills are favored ahead of the Jets in that division to win the big game (+850).
The defending AFC and NFC champions are both the favorites to win it all from their respective conferences. The Chiefs are +650 and the Eagles are +750. Both teams keep most of their roster and their main players are still in their prime.
Over the past three years, the Cowboys have finished second, first, and second in neutral offensive tempo. In his final three seasons as play-caller in GB, Mike McCarthy’s offenses finished 20th, 25th, and 19th respectively. The main risk is that Dallas likely regresses but it should be noted that it finished first in red zone TD rate last year. It’s possible that this offense has reached its peak, but it would still be upsetting if it didn’t finish in the top 10 for EPA per play. They are +1400 to win Super Bowl 58.
Don’t sleep on the Bengals at +1000
The Bengals lost a lot of skill on the defensive side of the ball, but the offensive line saw the most dramatic growth.
While the Bengals signed Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, and La’el Collins in 2022 as part of a volume-based strategy to improve their offensive line, Cincinnati made the bold move this summer. With a four-year, $64 million contract, Brown, who was the best pure left tackle available, is just the 10th most paid player at his position.
Given that the Bengals didn’t select a running back or lineman in the first round, Joe Mixon and Jonah Williams are likely to remain on the roster, making Smith the only significant offensive change. Unexpectedly, Cincinnati passed on a tight end this year as well, giving Smith a clear path to take Hurst’s spot as Joe Burrow’s top TE.
Super Bowl 58 Odds
|SUPER BOWL LVIII WINNER
|Kansas City Chiefs
|San Francisco 49ers
|New York Jets
|Los Angeles Chargers
|New Orleans Saints
|New York Giants
|Las Vegas Raiders
|New England Patriots
|Green Bay Packers
|Los Angeles Rams
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers